According to the latest totals, Democrats retain a significant lead in registered voters in Clark County over Republicans. May I pose a question?

So What?

 

Democrats lead Republicans in registered voters in Clark County

According to the latest totals, Democrats retain a significant lead in registered voters in Clark County over Republicans. May I pose a question?

So What?

Yesterday May 16, 2018, there were primary elections held in several states. As of this morning, voter turnout totals were available for Oregon (29.2%) and Nebraska (23%). At the risk of repeating myself may I pose another question?

So What?

As a friend of mine often says “let me splain it to you”. Some of you “experts” will be well aware of this…some newbie’s to the election process may find this interesting.

The significant question posed in this commentary is “How many votes does your candidate need to win?” Well with a little nudging of the numbers hopefully this will demonstrate the number needed is very achievable.

Let’s look at Nevada Assembly District 34. As of February 2018, there are a total of 34,553 voters in AD34. If we use Oregon’s primary turnout for our general elections in Nov (yep I can hear the experts screaming) we can expect 10,090 folks to vote in AD34. To win our candidate needs 50% +1 of the votes = 5,046 votes. May I pose a question?

So What?

Check this out…the vote registration by party looks like this in AD34. Democrat 14,915 (4,355), Republican 10,070 (2,940), Non-Partisan 7,494 (2,188), Other 2,074 (606). The bracketed numbers shown above represent 29.2% of the registered voters. Remember 29.2% is yesterday’s turnout in Oregon. The difference between the Democrat and GOP predicted voter turnout is a mere 1,415 voters out of the 34,553 in the district. Can we the GOP not pick up 1,415 voters in a low turnout election? Of course, we can.

I know these numbers simplify things quite a bit as I’m not looking at the NP and Other numbers. The point is the votes we need to gain over the Democrats IS achievable.  By the way, I used Oregon’s May 2018 turnout percentage of 29.2%. In 2014 the last off-year election the turnout in Nevada was only 19.25% making the goal much easier to attain.

Please stay positive…the predicted “Blue Wave” is the media’s way of discouraging the GOP. Do you remember how the media said Donald Trump has no path to 270 Electoral College votes? Please ignore the media, stay fully behind President Trump, remain loyal to your GOP primary candidate informing your friends about your candidate and after the primary please fully support the winner of the GOP primary.

We can make Nevada a Red Wave by oozing positivity.

Let’s win this!!

Ray Lehman